The National Hurricane Center has identified the first area in the 2024 hurricane season showing potential tropical development. A region of low pressure situated 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is generating persistent storm activity. Although it’s currently moving southwest at 10-15 mph, it’s entering an area with higher wind shear, which may lead to its weakening or dissipation.
This system, located far out in the Eastern Atlantic, carries a minimal 10% chance of development over the next 2 to 7 days and is unlikely to pose any threat to the U.S. Despite this particular system’s low impact, experts are forecasting an active hurricane season ahead.
Ocean heat content in the main development zone of the Atlantic, where most storms form and head west toward the Caribbean and the U.S., currently sits at average levels for late June.
While the official NOAA hurricane season forecast is still forthcoming, early predictions from institutions like Colorado State University suggest an above-average season due to the warm Atlantic conditions.
The ocean heat content in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) is as high today as it was on May 24 last year. And, it’s as high as the average value on June 27. https://t.co/CdrzWVvKiZ pic.twitter.com/2E1p4SMOvR
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) April 22, 2024
CSU anticipates up to 23 named storms this year, potentially exhausting the primary list of storm names used by the National Hurricane Center.
